Simulation-based estimates and projections of global, regional and country-level maternal mortality by cause, 1990-2050.

Maternal mortality is a major global health challenge. Although progress has been made globally in reducing maternal deaths, measurement remains challenging given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. We developed the Global Maternal Health microsimulation model for women in 200 countries and territories, accounting for individual fertility preferences and clinical histories. Demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data were synthesized from multiple sources, including the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. We calibrated the model to empirical data from 1990 to 2015 and assessed the predictive accuracy of our model using indicators from 2016 to 2020. We projected maternal health indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country and estimate that between 1990 and 2020 annual global maternal deaths declined by over 40% from 587,500 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 520,600-714,000) to 337,600 (95% UI 307,900-364,100), and are projected to decrease to 327,400 (95% UI 287,800-360,700) in 2030 and 320,200 (95% UI 267,100-374,600) in 2050. The global maternal mortality ratio is projected to decline to 167 (95% UI 142-188) in 2030, with 58 countries above 140, suggesting that on current trends, maternal mortality Sustainable Development Goal targets are unlikely to be met. Building on the development of our structural model, future research can identify context-specific policy interventions that could allow countries to accelerate reductions in maternal deaths.

A simulation-based comparative effectiveness analysis of policies to improve global maternal health outcomes.

The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. We used the empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022 to 2030. Although individual interventions yielded fairly small reductions in maternal mortality, integrated strategies were more effective. A strategy to simultaneously increase facility births, improve the availability of clinical services and quality of care at facilities, and improve linkages to care would yield a projected global MMR of 72 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 58-87) in 2030. A comprehensive strategy adding family planning and community-based interventions would have an even larger impact, with a projected MMR of 58 (95% UI = 46-70). Although integrated strategies consisting of multiple interventions will probably be needed to achieve substantial reductions in maternal mortality, the relative priority of different interventions varies by setting. Our regional and country-level estimates can help guide priority setting in specific contexts to accelerate improvements in maternal health.

Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. METHODS: We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs - expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) - of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. FINDINGS: We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. CONCLUSION: By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world's poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health.

Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

BACKGROUND: Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. CONCLUSIONS: This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures.

The effectiveness of yoga in modifying risk factors for cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Yoga, a popular mind-body practice, may produce changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and metabolic syndrome risk factors. DESIGN: This was a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: Electronic searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were performed for systematic reviews and RCTs through December 2013. Studies were included if they were English, peer-reviewed, focused on asana-based yoga in adults, and reported relevant outcomes. Two reviewers independently selected articles and assessed quality using Cochrane's Risk of Bias tool. RESULTS: Out of 1404 records, 37 RCTs were included in the systematic review and 32 in the meta-analysis. Compared to non-exercise controls, yoga showed significant improvement for body mass index (-0.77 kg/m(2) (95% confidence interval -1.09 to -0.44)), systolic blood pressure (-5.21 mmHg (-8.01 to -2.42)), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-12.14 mg/dl (-21.80 to -2.48)), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (3.20 mg/dl (1.86 to 4.54)). Significant changes were seen in body weight (-2.32 kg (-4.33 to -0.37)), diastolic blood pressure (-4.98 mmHg (-7.17 to -2.80)), total cholesterol (-18.48 mg/dl (-29.16 to -7.80)), triglycerides (-25.89 mg/dl (-36.19 to -15.60), and heart rate (-5.27 beats/min (-9.55 to -1.00)), but not fasting blood glucose (-5.91 mg/dl (-16.32 to 4.50)) nor glycosylated hemoglobin (-0.06% Hb (-0.24 to 0.11)). No significant difference was found between yoga and exercise. One study found an impact on smoking abstinence. CONCLUSIONS: There is promising evidence of yoga on improving cardio-metabolic health. Findings are limited by small trial sample sizes, heterogeneity, and moderate quality of RCTs.

Gastric adenocarcinoma screening and prevention in the era of new biomarker and endoscopic technologies: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) screening strategies based on new biomarker and endoscopic technologies. DESIGN: Using an intestinal-type NCGA microsimulation model, we evaluated the following one-time screening strategies for US men: (1) serum pepsinogen to detect gastric atrophy (with endoscopic follow-up of positive screen results), (2) endoscopic screening to detect dysplasia and asymptomatic cancer (with endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) treatment for detected lesions) and (3) Helicobacter pylori screening and treatment. Screening performance, treatment effectiveness, cancer and cost data were based on published literature and databases. Subgroups included current, former and never smokers. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), expressed as cost per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: Screening the general population at age 50 years reduced the lifetime intestinal-type NCGA risk (0.24%) by 26.4% with serum pepsinogen screening, 21.2% with endoscopy and EMR and 0.2% with H. pylori screening/treatment. Targeting current smokers reduced the lifetime risk (0.35%) by 30.8%, 25.5%, and 0.1%, respectively. For all subgroups, serum pepsinogen screening was more effective and more cost-effective than all other strategies, although its ICER varied from $76,000/QALY (current smokers) to $105,400/QALY (general population). Results were sensitive to H. pylori prevalence, screen age and serum pepsinogen test sensitivity. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that at a $100,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold, the probability that serum pepsinogen screening was preferred was 0.97 for current smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Although not warranted for the general population, targeting high-risk smokers for serum pepsinogen screening may be a cost-effective strategy to reduce intestinal-type NCGA mortality.

[Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation]. / Salud global 2035: un mundo convergiendo en el lapso de una generación.

Prompted by the 20th anniversary of the 1993 World Development Report, a Lancet Commission revisited the case for investment in health and developed a new investment framework to achieve dramatic health gains by 2035. The Commission's report has four key messages, each accompanied by opportunities for action by national governments of low-income and middle-income countries and by the international community. First, there is an enormous economic payoff from investing in health. The impressive returns make a strong case for both increased domestic financing of health and for allocating a higher proportion of official development assistance to development of health. Second, modeling by the Commission found that a "grand convergence" in health is achievable by 2035-that is, a reduction in infectious, maternal, and child mortality down to universally low levels. Convergence would require aggressive scale up of existing and new health tools, and it could mostly be financed from the expected economic growth of low- and middle-income countries. The international community can best support convergence by funding the development and delivery of new health technologies and by curbing antibiotic resistance. Third, fiscal policies -such as taxation of tobacco and alcohol- are a powerful and underused lever that governments can use to curb non-communicable diseases and injuries while also raising revenue for health. International action on NCDs and injuries should focus on providing technical assistance on fiscal policies, regional cooperation on tobacco, and funding policy and implementation research on scaling-up of interventions to tackle these conditions. Fourth, progressive universalism, a pathway to universal health coverage (UHC) that includes the poor from the outset, is an efficient way to achieve health and financial risk protection. For national governments, progressive universalism would yield high health gains per dollar spent and poor people would gain the most in terms of health and financial protection. The international community can best support countries to implement progressive UHC by financing policy and implementation research, such as on the mechanics of designing and implementing evolution of the benefits package as the resource envelope for public finance grows.

Salud global 2035: un mundo convergiendo en el lapso de una generación / Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation

Con motivo del 20º aniversario del Informe sobre el Desarrollo Mundial 1993, una Comisión de la revista The Lancet reconsideró el argumento a favor de la inversión en salud y desarrolló un nuevo marco de inversión para lograr mejoras dramáticas en materia de salud para el año 2035. El informe de la Comisión contiene cuatro mensajes clave, cada uno acompañado de oportunidades para los gobiernos nacionales de países de ingresos bajos y medios y para la comunidad internacional. En primer lugar, invertir en salud acarrea enormes rendimientos económicos. Las impresionantes ganancias son un fuerte argumento a favor de un aumento en el financiamiento nacional de la salud y de asignar una mayor proporción de la asistencia oficial al desarrollo de la salud. En segundo lugar, en el modelo creado por la Comisión se encontró que es posible lograr para el año 2035 una "gran convergencia" en salud, consistente en la reducción de las tasas de mortalidad materna, infantil y por infecciones a niveles universalmente bajos. Tal convergencia requeriría la ampliación de las herramientas de salud existentes y un incremento agresivo de nuevas herramientas, y podría ser financiada en su mayor parte con recursos derivados del crecimiento económico esperado de los países de ingresos bajos y medios. La mejor manera en que la comunidad internacional puede apoyar la convergencia es financiando el desarrollo y suministro de nuevas tecnologías de salud, y frenando la resistencia a los antibióticos. En tercer lugar, las políticas fiscales -tales como los impuestos al tabaco y al alcohol- son una palanca poderosa y subutilizada que los gobiernos pueden emplear para detener el avance de las enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT) y las lesiones, a la vez que elevan los ingresos públicos para la salud. La acción internacional sobre las ENT y lesiones debería enfocarse en proporcionar asistencia técnica sobre políticas fiscales, en cooperación regional para el combate al tabaquismo y en financiar investigación sobre políticas e implementación para ampliar las intervenciones que enfrenten estos problemas. En cuarto lugar, la universalización progresiva -una vía hacia la cobertura universal de salud (CUS) que incluya desde el comienzo a los pobres- es una manera eficiente de lograr la protección a la salud contra riesgos financieros. Para los gobiernos nacionales, la universalización progresiva produciría elevadas ganancias en salud por cada dólar que se gaste en ésta, y los pobres serían quienes más ganarían en términos tanto de salud como de protección financiera. La mejor manera en que la comunidad internacional puede brindar apoyo a los países para implementar una CUS progresiva es financiando la investigación sobre políticas e implementación, por ejemplo, sobre la mecánica del diseño e instrumentación de la evolución del paquete de beneficios conforme crezca el presupuesto para las finanzas públicas.

Prompted by the 20th anniversary of the 1993 World Development Report, a Lancet Commission revisited the case for investment in health and developed a new investment framework to achieve dramatic health gains by 2035. The Commission's report has four key messages, each accompanied by opportunities for action by national governments of low-income and middle-income countries and by the international community. First, there is an enormous economic payoff from investing in health. The impressive returns make a strong case for both increased domestic financing of health and for allocating a higher proportion of official development assistance to development of health. Second, modeling by the Commission found that a "grand convergence" in health is achievable by 2035-that is, a reduction in infectious, maternal, and child mortality down to universally low levels. Convergence would require aggressive scale up of existing and new health tools, and it could mostly be financed from the expected economic growth of low- and middle-income countries. The international community can best support convergence by funding the development and delivery of new health technologies and by curbing antibiotic resistance. Third, fiscal policies -such as taxation of tobacco and alcohol- are a powerful and underused lever that governments can use to curb non-communicable diseases and injuries while also raising revenue for health. International action on NCDs and injuries should focus on providing technical assistance on fiscal policies, regional cooperation on tobacco, and funding policy and implementation research on scaling-up of interventions to tackle these conditions. Fourth, progressive universalism, a pathway to universal health coverage (UHC) that includes the poor from the outset, is an efficient way to achieve health and financial risk protection. For national governments, progressive universalism would yield high health gains per dollar spent and poor people would gain the most in terms of health and financial protection. The international community can best support countries to implement progressive UHC by financing policy and implementation research, such as on the mechanics of designing and implementing evolution of the benefits package as the resource envelope for public finance grows.

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori should be priorities for gastric cancer control efforts.

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance.

INTRODUCTION: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. METHODS: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. RESULTS: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

National and sub-national analysis of the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of strategies to reduce maternal mortality in Afghanistan.

BACKGROUND: Afghanistan has one of the highest rates of maternal mortality in the world. We assess the health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in Afghanistan. METHODS: Using national and sub-national data, we adapted a previously validated model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy and pregnancy-related complications. We incorporated data on antenatal care, family planning, skilled birth attendance and information about access to transport, referral facilities and quality of care. We evaluated single interventions (e.g. family planning) and strategies that combined several interventions packaged as integrated services (transport, intrapartum care). Outcomes included pregnancy-related complications, maternal deaths, maternal mortality ratios, costs and cost-effectiveness ratios. FINDINGS: Model-projected reduction in maternal deaths between 1999-2002 and 2007-08 approximated 20%. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to further reduce maternal mortality; up to 1 in 3 pregnancy-related deaths could be prevented if contraception use approached 60%. Nevertheless, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold (∼30% to 40%) without strategies that assured women access to emergency obstetrical care. A stepwise approach that coupled improved family planning with incremental improvements in skilled attendance, transport, referral and appropriate intrapartum care and high-quality facilities prevented 3 of 4 maternal deaths. Such an approach would cost less than US$200 per year of life saved at the national level, well below Afghanistan's per capita gross domestic product (GDP), a common benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Similar results were noted sub-nationally. INTERPRETATION: Our findings reinforce the importance of early intensive efforts to increase family planning for spacing and limiting births and to provide control of fertility choices. While significant improvements in health delivery infrastructure will be required to meet Millennium Development Goal 5, a paced systematic effort that invests in scaling up capacity for integrated maternal health services as the total fertility rate declines appears feasible and cost-effective.

Health and economic impact of human papillomavirus 16 and 18 vaccination of preadolescent girls and cervical cancer screening of adult women in Peru / Repercusiones sanitarias y económicas de la vacunación de niñas preadolescentes contra los tipos 16 y 18 del virus del papiloma humano y el tamizaje del cáncer cervicouterino en las mujeres adultas en el Perú

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the benefits, cost-effectiveness (i.e., value for money), and required financial costs (e.g., affordability) of adding human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to Peru's cervical cancer screening program. METHODS: Evidence (e.g., coverage, delivery costs) from an HPV vaccination demonstration project conducted in Peru was combined with epidemiological data in an empirically calibrated mathematical model to assess screening (HPV DNA testing three to five times per lifetime) and HPV vaccination under different cost, coverage, and efficacy assumptions. Model outcomes included lifetime risk of cancer reduction, cancer cases averted, lives saved, average life expectancy gains, short-term financial costs, and discounted long-term economic costs. RESULTS: Status quo low levels of screening (e.g., cytologic screening at 10.0% coverage) reduced lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 11.9%, compared to not screening. Adding vaccination of preadolescent girls at a coverage achieved in the demonstration program (82.0%) produced an additional 46.1% reduction, and would cost less than US$ 500 per year of life saved (YLS) at ~US$ 7/dose or ~US$ 1 300 at ~US$ 20/dose. One year of vaccination was estimated to cost ~US$ 5 million at ~US$ 5/dose or ~US$ 16 million at ~US$ 20/dose, including programmatic costs. Enhanced screening in adult women combined with preadolescent vaccination had incremental cost-effectiveness ratios lower than Peru's 2005 per capita gross domestic product (GDP; US$ 2 852, in 2009 US$), and would be considered cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Preadolescent HPV vaccination, followed by enhanced HPV DNA screening in adult women, could prevent two out of three cervical cancer deaths. Several strategies would be considered "good value" for resources invested, provided vaccine prices are low. While financial costs imply substantial immediate investments, the high-value payoff should motivate creative mechanisms for financing and scale-up of delivery programs.

OBJETIVO: Calcular los beneficios, la rentabilidad (relación costo-efectividad), y los costos financieros (asequibilidad) de añadir la vacunación contra el virus del papiloma humano (VPH) al programa de tamizaje del cáncer cervicouterino en el Perú. MÉTODOS: Se combinaron los datos probatorios (por ejemplo, cobertura, costos de prestación) de un proyecto piloto de vacunación contra el VPH llevado a cabo en el Perú con datos epidemiológicos, en un modelo matemático calibrado empíricamente para evaluar el tamizaje (prueba de ADN del VPH tres a cinco veces durante toda la vida) y la vacunación contra el VPH, según diferentes supuestos de costo, cobertura y eficacia. Los resultados del modelo incluían la reducción del riesgo de cáncer durante toda la vida, los casos de cáncer evitados, las vidas salvadas, los incrementos de la esperanza media de vida, los costos financieros a corto plazo y los costos económicos a largo plazo actualizados. RESULTADOS: Los bajos niveles de tamizaje actuales (cobertura del tamizaje citológico de 10,0 %) redujeron en 11,9 % el riesgo de cáncer cervicouterino durante toda la vida en comparación con la ausencia de tamizaje. La adición de la vacunación de las niñas preadolescentes con la cobertura alcanzada en el programa piloto (82,0 %) produjo una reducción adicional de 46,1 % y costaría menos de US$ 500 por cada año de vida salvado a US$ 7 la dosis, o de US$ 1 300 a US$ 20 la dosis. Se calculó que el costo de las vacunaciones de un año era aproximadamente de US$ 5 millones a unos US$ 5 la dosis o de aproximadamente US$ 16 millones a unos US$ 20 la dosis, incluidos los costos programáticos. La mejora del tamizaje en las mujeres adultas combinada con la vacunación de las preadolescentes mostraba cocientes de rentabilidad incremental inferiores al producto interno bruto per cápita del Perú en el año 2005 (PIB US$ 2 852, en dólares del 2009), y se consideraría rentable. CONCLUSIONES: La vacunación de las preadolescentes contra el VPH, junto con la mejora del tamizaje mediante la prueba de ADN del VPH en las mujeres adultas, podría prevenir dos de cada tres muertes debidas a cáncer cervicouterino. Varias estrategias se considerarían rentables en relación con los recursos invertidos, a condición de que el precio de la vacuna sea bajo. Aunque los costos financieros implican inversiones inmediatas sustanciales, el valor elevado de los beneficios debe motivar la elaboración de mecanismos creativos para financiar y extender los programas de prestación de servicios.

Assessing health and economic outcomes of interventions to reduce pregnancy-related mortality in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Women in Nigeria face some of the highest maternal mortality risks in the world. We explore the benefits and cost-effectiveness of individual and integrated packages of interventions to prevent pregnancy-related deaths. METHODS: We adapt a previously validated maternal mortality model to Nigeria. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to Southwest and Northeast zones using survey-based data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions, and could include improved logistics. RESULTS: Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality, was cost saving in the Southwest zone and cost-effective elsewhere, and prevented nearly 1 in 5 abortion-related deaths. However, with a singular focus on family planning and safe abortion, mortality reduction would plateau below MDG 5. Strategies that could prevent 4 out of 5 maternal deaths included an integrated and stepwise approach that includes increased skilled deliveries, facility births, access to antenatal/postpartum care, improved recognition of referral need, transport, and availability quality of EmOC in addition to family planning and safe abortion. The economic benefits of these strategies ranged from being cost-saving to having incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $500 per YLS, well below Nigeria's per capita GDP. CONCLUSIONS: Early intensive efforts to improve family planning and control of fertility choices, accompanied by a stepwise effort to scale-up capacity for integrated maternal health services over several years, will save lives and provide equal or greater value than many public health interventions we consider among the most cost-effective (e.g., childhood immunization).

Patient- and population-level health consequences of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy in settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability.

BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings, HIV budgets are flattening or decreasing. A policy of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy (ART) after HIV treatment failure was modeled to highlight trade-offs among competing policy goals of optimizing individual and population health outcomes. METHODS: In settings with two available ART regimens, we assessed two strategies: (1) continue ART after second-line failure (Status Quo) and (2) discontinue ART after second-line failure (Alternative). A computer model simulated outcomes for a single cohort of newly detected, HIV-infected individuals. Projections were fed into a population-level model allowing multiple cohorts to compete for ART with constraints on treatment capacity. In the Alternative strategy, discontinuation of second-line ART occurred upon detection of antiretroviral failure, specified by WHO guidelines. Those discontinuing failed ART experienced an increased risk of AIDS-related mortality compared to those continuing ART. RESULTS: At the population level, the Alternative strategy increased the mean number initiating ART annually by 1,100 individuals (+18.7%) to 6,980 compared to the Status Quo. More individuals initiating ART under the Alternative strategy increased total life-years by 15,000 (+2.8%) to 555,000, compared to the Status Quo. Although more individuals received treatment under the Alternative strategy, life expectancy for those treated decreased by 0.7 years (-8.0%) to 8.1 years compared to the Status Quo. In a cohort of treated patients only, 600 more individuals (+27.1%) died by 5 years under the Alternative strategy compared to the Status Quo. Results were sensitive to the timing of detection of ART failure, number of ART regimens, and treatment capacity. Although we believe the results robust in the short-term, this analysis reflects settings where HIV case detection occurs late in the disease course and treatment capacity and the incidence of newly detected patients are stable. CONCLUSIONS: In settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability, trade-offs emerge between maximizing outcomes for individual patients already on treatment and ensuring access to treatment for all people who may benefit. While individuals may derive some benefit from ART even after virologic failure, the aggregate public health benefit is maximized by providing effective therapy to the greatest number of people. These trade-offs should be explicit and transparent in antiretroviral policy decisions.

Health and economic impact of HPV 16/18 vaccination and cervical cancer screening in Eastern Africa.

Eastern Africa has the world's highest cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates. We used epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe to develop models of HPV-related infection and disease. For each country, we assessed HPV vaccination of girls before age 12 followed by screening with HPV DNA testing once, twice, or three times per lifetime (at ages 35, 40, 45). For women over age 30, we assessed only screening (with HPV DNA testing up to three times per lifetime or VIA at age 35). Assuming no waning immunity, mean reduction in lifetime cancer risk associated with vaccination ranged from 36 to 45%, and vaccination followed by screening once per lifetime at age 35 with HPV DNA testing ranged from 43 to 51%. For both younger and older women, the most effective screening strategy was HPV DNA testing three times per lifetime. Provided the cost per vaccinated girl was less than I$10 (I$2 per dose), vaccination had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [I$ (international dollars)/year of life saved (YLS)] less than the country-specific per capita GDP, a commonly cited heuristic for "very cost-effective" interventions. If the cost per vaccinated girl was between I$10 (I$2 per dose) and I$25 (I$5 per dose), vaccination followed by HPV DNA testing would save the most lives and would be considered good value for public health dollars. These results should be used to catalyze design and evaluation of HPV vaccine delivery and screening programs, and contribute to a dialogue on financing HPV vaccination in poor countries.